Analysis - Coalition the more stable option for Ireland

by **Strawberry** Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:01 pm

(Reuters) - A coalition government would be the best outcome for Ireland as it seeks to climb out of its economic hole despite the invective being hurled between the two main opposition parties ahead of this month's historic poll.

Ireland's February 25 parliamentary election is the first in Europe to be dominated by the euro zone debt crisis and the centre-right Fine Gael party and the centre-left Labour party have been trading blows over how to deal with a controversial EU/IMF bailout.

A survey last week gave Fine Gael party 38 percent of the vote, almost double the support pledged for its traditional partner Labour, putting it within sight of an outright majority for the first time in its near 80 year history.

But Fine Gael would most likely still need help to secure a majority and if it ditched Labour in favour of a clutch of independent lawmakers things could get tricky.

"A lot of independents are particular personality types," said Theresa Reidy, a lecturer at University College Cork. "They don't always find it terribly easy to work with other people."

This month's election is the most hotly contested in decades and such is the anger with mainstream politicians over their failure to avert the financial crisis that over 230 people are running as independents, more than double the figure in 2007.

Traditionally independent candidates focus on local issues but this year's crop of hopefuls are much more ideological and span the spectrum from the far-left candidates who want to rip up the EU/IMF bailout to a host of right-wing economic pundits.

Fine Gael would probably be able to drum up support from around 10 independents but it would likely be a motley crew of Green party members, financial experts and traditional parish-pump politicians, making for an unstable administration.

Prime Minister Brian Cowen's outgoing government was hamstrung by its reliance on two independent lawmakers.

So far, only one poll has suggested Fine Gael could go it alone and with around 20 percent of voters still undecided, a coalition with Labour still appears the most likely.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/uk-ireland-politics-idUKTRE71E3TJ20110215