WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

I've been researching resource issues for several decades and am strongly in the Peak Oil camp, so it's nice to get this sort of validation...

except that it means the end of civilization and all.


(But civilization is kind of overrated in some ways, IMHO.)

DoomFinch wrote:http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

I've been researching resource issues for several decades and am strongly in the Peak Oil camp, so it's nice to get this sort of validation...

except that it means the end of civilization and all.


(But civilization is kind of overrated in some ways, IMHO.)

Smaller civilizations would be nicer.

Mother Mary wrote:

Smaller civilizations would be nicer.

Well...we may not have a choice in the matter in a few years: small or none.

Hey...like your sig line...big fan of RAW!

DoomFinch wrote:

Mother Mary wrote:

Smaller civilizations would be nicer.

Well...we may not have a choice in the matter in a few years: small or none.

Hey...like your sig line...big fan of RAW!

Hi DoomFinch

Thanks for bringing us some doom

I am only pulling your leg.

This just highlights that we need to change the way we are using energy and quickly.

I think smaller civilizations in the shape of communities IS the way to go and resourcing locally instead of overseas.

Well...I'm a Doomer...I bringz teh DOOM!


DOOM: now with bright orange feathers!

is there any way to confirm that this is factual and not a ploy to artificially raise prices while preserving their supply, effectively bleeding the rest of the world dry and leaving them with all of the money...and oil?

Chiral wrote:is there any way to confirm that this is factual and not a ploy to artificially raise prices while preserving their supply, effectively bleeding the rest of the world dry and leaving them with all of the money...and oil?

not easily, the OPEC nations don't subscribe to outside monitoring of their supplies. They tell you what they have and we are expected to take it at face value. I often wonder if there was a UN or other group monitoring whether these shortages would be as short as people are told!

Janey wrote:

Chiral wrote:is there any way to confirm that this is factual and not a ploy to artificially raise prices while preserving their supply, effectively bleeding the rest of the world dry and leaving them with all of the money...and oil?

not easily, the OPEC nations don't subscribe to outside monitoring of their supplies. They tell you what they have and we are expected to take it at face value. I often wonder if there was a UN or other group monitoring whether these shortages would be as short as people are told!

I doubt there would be a shortage, how for decades now have they been able to measure the amound of oil in the ground? They would not be able to jump the price when their coffers start running low if there were monitors, so I think that would be a fantastic idea.

@Chiral

Hmmmm...not without having some way to telepathically transmit about 20 or so years of research on resource issues from my brain to yours.

I can understand your feelings though...

One thing that happened back in the 80's was very telling. I think it was around '85 that one particular OPEC country upped their reserve estimates by about 50%...and then the very next year the rest of the OPEC countries did the same...and for some of them those numbers have not changed since then.

Things that make you go "hmmmmm".

The peak in oil discoveries was around 1969. There have been some discoveries of note since then, but nothing that would rival the Ghawar field...not even close...and THAT field has been milked since 1951. The sad fact is that most of these countries have not allowed an independent audit of their fields...but it does say a lot that reserves would hold steady while no major discoveries are made and production is maintained. Improvements in extraction technology can account for SOME of it, but hardly all.

It's probably just good old fashioned lying. If there has been deception going on, it's probably been more to maintain BAU and keep the machine going until it just can't go anymore. Had we been more acutely aware of the real nature of resource constraints, we MAY have transitioned to better energy sources when it was still feasible to do so...but that would have left the OPEC nations (and others) with a resource that would have steadily LOST value over time as other sources of energy took their place. So they fed us a stream of confabulated estimates and we bought it.

And now the other shoe is starting to drop.

Janey wrote:

Chiral wrote:is there any way to confirm that this is factual and not a ploy to artificially raise prices while preserving their supply, effectively bleeding the rest of the world dry and leaving them with all of the money...and oil?

not easily, the OPEC nations don't subscribe to outside monitoring of their supplies. They tell you what they have and we are expected to take it at face value. I often wonder if there was a UN or other group monitoring whether these shortages would be as short as people are told!

Actually there sort of was...and I wish my brain could remember facts and figures as good as it can do other things, but for the longest time in the States the yearly assembly of all the world oil field estimates was outsourced to a tiny little company that consisted of a married couple living in Wyoming (or somewhere like that). It made me fall over in my chair when I read about that. No huge working group full of highly paid analysts with a direct line to the Whitehouse...just a couple of people in a house drinking coffee and making pancakes.

So the very lifeblood of our entire industrial civilization was being monitored by these two people.

I have a theory. It's a simple one. It goes like this. Are you ready?

"The more dangerous the issue, the faster the official retraction":

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=103987&hmpn=1

Well, I think TPTB may be trying to work around peak oil for the moment. BP is ging to be drilling 3,000 new wells in Iraq over the next 10 years. The Rumaila field is expected to become the the second most productive field in the world.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/01/26/107493/big-reason-for-hope-in-iraq-oil.html

IIRC there are quite a few oil fields which aren't exploited at the moment due to the price of oil not making it viable, maybe in a few years / a decade or so those fields might become economically viable.