Mid East & Africa : Global Strategies and Scenarios/Opinions

A new thread to discuss the many possibilities of what will happen in near/far future due to current events in ME and Africa.

I've asked Janey and other contributors to join in and monitor this as to keep it within the parameters of this forum.

My intent is to keep the news post as factual and opinion free as may here have friends and/or family directly involved in this and want only reliable news.

As always the Admin's, Mod's and good friends of LSN can change anything I post to suit the best interest of of this Forum.

PLEASE POST your opinions or questions about this thread here .THANK You All.

PS I am not a journalist or Mod. and don't want to be.just love LSN and company

an example of topic,at least 9 countries with protests,riots,government overthrow,and public unrest.Will this help world democracy and a better place or WW3.?

oil prices to rise globally due to unrest,bringing turmoil to most of the world.

Oil markets are famously skittish, especially when there is even the possibility of disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa, which account for some 35 percent of the world’s oil production and a greater percentage of the world’s known reserves.

That nervousness is likely to spread elsewhere, with so many economies still fragile in the wake of the worldwide economic downturn and with the possibility that higher crude prices could lead to further increases in food prices. The high cost of food has already led to unrest in several countries, even before political revolts began in the Middle East.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/20oil.html

I doubt world powers will stand by much longer.

Cab this is a great idea and thankyou for starting this thread.
When it comes to matters of the ME I am dumb and I am ashamed of it. The other day I really thought Bahrain was in Iran and I was embarresed when I realised that I had been posting material in the wrong threads.

Since coming aboard Janeys LSN and met all of you lovely peeps I have learnt more than I have done in a lifetime.

When I was a young teenager my mum used to take in foreign students. One particular student who was from the ME - im not sure which country now, gave me a lovely green jacket that her exboyfriend had given her.

I really loved it and wore it all the time. After a while my Mum said that I wasnt to wear the jacket anymore because they didnt approve and it didnt look feminine.

I carried on wearing it and then shortly after it disappeared from my bedroom.

I wasnt happy!!!

Years later I found out that it had PLO badges all over and that if I had carried on wearing it my life may have been in danger.

This is an example of why I am nieve to the politics in the ME.

Because my parents didnt educate me when I was younger.

As for my opinion now to what I think may happen in the ME and the implications that this could have on the rest of the world well...

from what I have learnt so far it could go either way.

With the 2 Iranian warships using the suez and probably using this particular event as a testing ground to see how much they can now get away with and how other countries such as Israel react to this, it is like living in a new world.

But then again isnt this how it used to be years ago??

good to know and got ur pm...this might take awhile to catch on but might be good for the forum.

i"ll be gone a few hr's soon, please comment to get this going or deleted,thank for the help.

Hi Cab,

yes this was a great idea - that way I don't clog up the threads with my long replies, .

Strawberry - the jacket story is funny in a way, and really you thought Bahrain was in Iran?

I must say, I was also quite ignorant when it came to the ME - and living in the US before coming to Egypt, I was watching a little TOO much FOX News and had a totally different opinion than I have now. It is quite interesting how to learn and see things different when you actually live it.

The whole Iran warship thing is quite honestly starting to bore me a little, lol...don't hate me. But lets call it for what it is. Iran is testing it's waters - because they want the same rights as everybody else. Why is everybody hacking around on Iran? Because they refuse to accept the US and Israel as their master, like Egypt was, like Bahrain, like Saudi etc...
Iran is the 4th largest oil reservoir in the world, that should tell us something.

Israel has always the same strategy - they constantly are paranoid about everybody wanting to attack them, they always attack first though and claim self-defense. Seen it too many times in the last years. So they want to attack Iran now for years and can't find a justification. So Iran is provoking them, to see if they will dare - if they did, they'd come off as the aggressor and justify a full blown attack from Iran along with its allies. I think we know who that would be.

We're also witnessing a chess game - played out by NWO, TPTB, whatever you want to call it. US and Israel are slowly or quickly, however you want to see it, loosing it's grip and influence over the ME. They've sucessfully installed Dictators on all possible threatening countries and kept them "under control"...now people are waking up, refuse to take the abuse any longer and pretty soon, US and Israel will have to deal with the majority opinion of the people. They will not like some of this, but hey, if Democracy is good for them, why not for everybody?

Surely is interesting to watch, it is also starting in Europe, Italy had demo's against Berlusconi, Russia against Putin. USA is starting as well...people are tired of being exploited by greedy leaders. There's not much difference between the Dictators in the ME and in Europe and US imo.

All this just reflects my personal opinion of what I think is going on.


(stepping off the podium for a while - need to eat )

a brief idea before I leave,
What will happen when oil hits 150-200 usd brl.? Will any of us be able to afford to go to work,stay warm?
we have many countries represented here,The US will go ape sh*t!!! guaranteed.

By for now

Hey Cab thanks for making this thread.....apologies to everyone now if what I say sounds melodramatic but I just wish to impress upon you all the importance of all the events in the ME that are happening currently.

I don't wish to sound alarmist and hopefully in the end I am wrong about everything I will say in regards to these events because I sure as hell do not want to be right. The ME is at or is heading for a crossroads which will have global implications, just about every country in the world has either something to gain or to lose by events in the ME. To me this can only end in one way.....there will be a war of some kind at some point, either someone does something very stupid to start it off or some ME gov't ie Iran, or Syria decide that it's time to just lay out all the cards on the table. Now I don't know how the war will be fought, conventional wisdom would dictate this would be a conventional war like all others before it, however with religious zealots potentially in control of the most destructive weapons known to man the possibility of mass casualty attacks is higher than ever before.

However having said all of that, given how the events in Egypt unfolded with relatively little loss of life this could also mean the beginning of some kind of democratic revolution similar to the one which took place after the fall of the Soviet Union which what I hope for the most. Too many people in this region have been repressed for far too long and freedom and liberty are the rights of not only americans and westerners or eurpoeans, but all mankind. Our govt's should not only be supporting these emotionally but with action to help those people who seek to live by democratic and free rule.

Hope I didn't bore anyone with all that yammering.

Godzilla85 wrote:Hey Cab thanks for making this thread.....apologies to everyone now if what I say sounds melodramatic but I just wish to impress upon you all the importance of all the events in the ME that are happening currently.

I don't wish to sound alarmist and hopefully in the end I am wrong about everything I will say in regards to these events because I sure as hell do not want to be right. The ME is at or is heading for a crossroads which will have global implications, just about every country in the world has either something to gain or to lose by events in the ME. To me this can only end in one way.....there will be a war of some kind at some point, either someone does something very stupid to start it off or some ME gov't ie Iran, or Syria decide that it's time to just lay out all the cards on the table. Now I don't know how the war will be fought, conventional wisdom would dictate this would be a conventional war like all others before it, however with religious zealots potentially in control of the most destructive weapons known to man the possibility of mass casualty attacks is higher than ever before.

However having said all of that, given how the events in Egypt unfolded with relatively little loss of life this could also mean the beginning of some kind of democratic revolution similar to the one which took place after the fall of the Soviet Union which what I hope for the most. Too many people in this region have been repressed for far too long and freedom and liberty are the rights of not only americans and westerners or eurpoeans, but all mankind. Our govt's should not only be supporting these emotionally but with action to help those people who seek to live by democratic and free rule.

Hope I didn't bore anyone with all that yammering.

I agree with you, if west does not change policy vis a vis middle east then its going to be bad, but I'm sure the west will in the coming weeks/month change stance and stop supporting kings and dictators in ME.

The kings and dictators have used carrots and sticks against the west...carrots = oil and buissness money,
sticks = fearmongering about islamists and terrorists...

But now we have PROOF it was mubarak and ahmed al-adly that made terrorist attacks and blamed on islamists!

I think the west (people) have started to see reality....the goverments have known but keeps quite because of money...but now must change stance or revolutions will happen to them!

My 2 cents. There is a lot more going on behind the scenes than we see. The original impetus of these protests were hunger. The more the price of oil goes up, the more hunger we will see and the colder homes in the northern latitudes will get. Unemployment is rife on a global scale. Add to this the natural and environmental tragedies that are growing almost exponentially.

The battle for the control of food has already been going on with big GMO companies playing hardball with nations. Claudia posted a good article about the wars between the usury and non-usury banks; something many people seem unaware of. We have already seen limited unrest in European countries and even tiny forays into civil disobedience in the U.S.

With food and energy seeming to be at the core of all of this, and with no signs of shortages letting up any time soon; with the cash shortages faced by the common person all around the world; with governments cracking down in an effort to retain order and with these peoples now rising up and, seemingly, defeating their masters; I'm afraid it will be inspiring to people across the globe and not be contained to just the current region.

I think we are going to see resource wars on a scale never seen before. I'm not very optimistic; I don't see a lot of peace and goodwill being handed out by TPTB. On the other hand, if anything good does come out of this, it will be the restrengthening of the family unit.

World War 3? I hope not. But I think so.

This isn't "just" a Muslim or an Arabic convolution.

Does anyone remember the commotion in Greece last year? The Persian people gunned down for seeking democracy?

Outrage in Italy going on right now?

This is may well be a total "refreshing" of humankind. The oldest civilisations -- Egypt, Phoenicia (Lebanon and the Levant), Punt/ Sheba (Sudan and Djibouti), Greece, Persia, Rome -- are "ripening" the first simply because they are the oldest.

The technology of instantaneous mass, non-centralised communication has been the catalyst.

I am looking at India, China, and Ethiopia - the other most ancient civilisations -- to go through their own struggles.

Everything that is going on now may not be some contrived plan. It may simply be spontaneous and natural to the condition of humankind.

You will have to exuse me Cab if you feel this inappropriate here and if you do let me know and I will move it. I thought it may be useful and I honestly didnt know where else to put it without it getting buried in a thread.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/17/arab.world.unrest/index.html

Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa -- country by country

a warm thank you to all, Now please post your true opinions,we actuualy do care.

Strawberry wrote:You will have to exuse me Cab if you feel this inappropriate here and if you do let me know and I will move it. I thought it may be useful and I honestly didnt know where else to put it without it getting buried in a thread.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/17/arab.world.unrest/index.html

Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa -- country by country

Straw, IMHO we should make such things mandatory learning for our KIDS and grand kids...

We ( the older gen.50+) should have insisted on this years ago.(US particularly).I've always been objective,never passive.

Ive been to some websites today where they are concerned the clerics will take over and form a caliphate,there is no doubt
this is Irans objective as they are after the return of the 12th Imman and global muslim dominance.I am not at this point
concerned about that,historically the military and financial powerhouse of the muslim world was Turkey,it was Turkey that
conquered most of Europe in the middle ages,without it your caliphate will not be as big a threat as say facism or communism was.

The second issue is the Sunni vs Shia issue I doubt these 2 can unify and resolve issues.At the moment there are two blocks the Iran-Syria-Lebanon block and the rest.I do not think the masses want fundamentalist islamic rule but there will be an Islamic component as other than the regimes the only other community leaders in these countries are the clerics.I do believe the new
regimes will also be socialist,redistributing wealth,so Islamic Socialist regimes but with a reasonable degree of personal freedom.

These regimes will probably be more amenable to Russia,France and China than the US or Britain,these 2 countries will loose
a lot of influence,however they need oil.The critical point will be if there is an uprising in Saudi Arabia I believe the US and Britain
would go to war to save the house of Saud.

good morning to all,
Straw I read the article again that u posted yesterday, it's rather sad that people are now fighting and dying over simple basic needs and desires,food, water, jobs.The corruption issues
of most governments is fast becoming a focal point world wide and will continue to spread until
the greed of a few ends.
I've learned much the last month,been reminded how bad things can get,and how fortunate
I am to live in the US.I closing I firmly believe most of these countries problems will become
much worse in the near future without true leadership.

Can democracy work in the ME and africa? Some facts and opinions:


FACT:Being American We have rights under our constitution and legal system.Due to our way of
thinking,upbringing,we allow people of all nationalities,religion and race to live here.We help
world wide when asked and do so with our hard earned TAX $$$.

Opinion: What is interesting to me is,At this time the protests,overthrows, strikes ect. have been a peoples agenda, not a well organized group looking for money and power.
The death rate is very low compared to what could be.(keep in mind 30,000 auto deaths/year in the US). Last point is No major democratic power has intervened???

World history has shown democracy is not free or easy,when the People decide what THEY want
help will come. Change can mean anything that is not now. What will thy decide???

The price of freedom has gone up in Libya since this morning.It makes my heart sad to see
the International Legal System (UN) slow to act on this but they have governing laws also.
Maybe tomorrow will things will change.

Interesting thread. Since you asked for opinions I'll share some of mine. I could go on and on, but I'll try to be brief.

I've never been a big believer in a well organized NWO plot to force us all into slavery or what have you, maybe some poorly organized conspiracies here & there to accomplish specific ends, usually short sighted and selfish ones. The US and the multinational corporations have tried any number of times, and were rarely more than partly successful. I think there is a fundamental urge in people to rebel against authority, and this sometimes flares up in spectacular ways. It's happening now around the world, just as it did in the 60s. Those of you old enough to remember will know that people around the world seized on any opportunity to riot in the streets, and sometimes the reasons were ridiculous, but the outcome was to shake things up a bit before sliding deeper into apathy...

I truly hope the arab world can forge some democratic governments out of the current situation. They have some serious obstacles to overcome, especially the propensity for corruption that is found in every civil service job in every government there. When government officials simply see their jobs as a mechanism to extort bribes from everyone who walks through the door, your country is going to stay in the third world.

The other thing that has to change is the arab attitude toward women. When you treat half your population as property, or as animals, you will never achieve anything like your full potential.

I don't mean that they have to turn into Americans. They don't want that and I wouldn't try to force it on anyone. Until they can guarantee some semblance of fair play for all their citizens, I don't see much hope in the long run. Where I do see some hope is in the fact that many of the young protesters have seen how it works in the west, and should have some understanding of these issues. I wish them all the best luck. They're going to need it.

cab123 wrote:The price of freedom has gone up in Libya since this morning.It makes my heart sad to see
the International Legal System (UN) slow to act on this but they have governing laws also.
Maybe tomorrow will things will change.

Cab nothing has changed and I fear nothing will change until something so big and so horrible happens it will then shock people out of apathy. Today I've heard arguments calling for respect of international law in dealing with Libya in how they have massacred so many innocent and unarmed people who siimply want their voices heard and want freedom. International law is useless right now and there are times when it's application is useless, this I feel is one of those times. For those that want international law to reign in this situation, tell that to all of the dead and dying right now that our govt's were unwilling to act or unable to act because they had to follow "the law".

What we are seeing isn't about law it's about humanity and the sanctity of life, two things I hold dear to my heart and I know many of you do as well. Those ideals along with the ideals of freedom have to be protected along with the people who fight for them, for the most part thankfully with laws, but there does come a time when more is needed. Remember that the tree of liberty must from time to time be replenished with the blood of not only patriots but of tyrants as well, it's time for the partriots to stop bleeding and for tyrants to spill blood.

I apologize to any and all if I seem rash in my view but I've seen too much evil in this day to just sit idly by and say that the law prevents us from acting against it, if that is the case then we are no better than the monsters perpetrating these horrible acts upon the people of Libya.

Thank you Joe and Zilla,

both have valid views,and that's the point of this thread,please feel free to use any or all
portions of my posts in other threads.

Strawberry wrote:
Earth Cries wrote:
ZX12R wrote:
Earth Cries wrote:
Janey, is Obama ever going to say anything about the situation? Any news from the WH other than that they condemn the actions?


I think I know Obama pretty well. And in my opinion, his greatest fear is of making a political mistake that makes him look bad
or flat out wrong about something. There is no way for him to commit to any real position concerning Libya, without running
some political risk. Therefore, he is extremely hesitant to speak about it. That's why he's been absent during these events.

He is terrified of having to comment on it, or take a strong position.


There comes a time when something is so glaringly wrong, it is time to speak up, no matter how hesitant you are. He is supposed to be the "ruler of the free world", an example of democracy. He is afraid he will tarnish his easy-going, rock star persona. Political risk, be damned. People are being terminated in horrible ways.


Im just putting a news article from AlJ in the ME room about the UN meeting today. As I panned down there is a photo of 2 dead martyrs. They look very loved and peaceful and all I can think of is that these two lads are sons, brothers and possibly fathers

Sad

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011221214022682385.html




Janey, Strawberry and all posters,

I'd like to make a few statements and I don't want to start any flame wars that would take away from the main purpose of this thread which is to keep the whole world abreast of what is truly happening in Libya or any other revolutionary country in this wild and crazy world. The first is that I do not believe that anyone can really hold President Obama accountable for the status of the citizens of Libya, pro or anti Ghadaffi.

In a revolution ultimately each nation is on its own to succeed or fail on the basis of the peoples in their country. That is simply the basic fact
truism thru out history and I believe it holds true also for the middle east and African states as well as it did 240 plus years ago in the American Revolution.

200, 300, 600, 1000 martyr patriots lives sacrificed for freedom is a mere drop in the hat historically to pull off a successful revolution that would free a people from the likes of Momar Ghadaffi.

Here are some statistics from the American Revolution I googles just now:

An estimated 25,000 American Revolutionaries died during active military service. About 8,000 of these deaths were in battle; the other 17,000 deaths were from disease, including about 8,000 - 12,000 who died while prisoners of war, most in rotting prison ships in New York. The number of Revolutionaries seriously wounded or disabled by the war has been estimated from 8,500 to 25,000. The total American military casualty figure was therefore as high as 50,000.[36]

I am very proud to add to those facts that my own great (x5) grandfather Ephraim Maynard died in the battle of Monmouth and his wife Salome received a tuppence of a widow's pension from my grandfather's patriotic sacrifice.

Yesterday, I wrote to the white house, spoke to the persons answering the phone there and also called the state department, complaining bitterly about the slaughter going on to unarmed civilians in Libya. I made my voice heard in my complaints and requests for something to be done to help the citizens of Libya because I want the Calvary to come rushing in to save everyone when tanks are used to mow down unarmed civilians and planes are used to carpet bomb wholesale neighborhoods. I cannot stand to see such horrible and painful abuse inflicted on anyone, nor any living thing. I'm an effing bleeding heart liberal who wants and prays for everyone in this world to live in peace with one another recognizing each persons sacred value and contribution to society as a whole, globally and locally.


But in my rational mind I know that the bottom line truth here is the end result of the bloody conflict in Libya lies with the strength purpose and determination of the people of Libya. Libyans and only Libyians will determine the outcome of their uprising.

We would all just hold our breath and keep praying and envisioning the outcome we hope will come from their martyrs sacrifice. I am willing to bet not one life has been lost in vain, that justice will prevail and that the days of king momar are limited. He has put his own head on the chopping block this time because the whole world has now seen him for what he truly is, a despot as evil and ruthless as Idi Amin, HItler, Stalin, Pol Pot et all.

That's all I want to say except have a little faith, this whole conflict isn't balanced on Pres Obama's spoken words nor yours nor mine. It's out of our hands.

Please just keep reporting the truth as it comes out. Keep our own armchair quarterbacking and micro managing of world events limited. Don't you realize the whole world is watching and holding their breath for the right outcome to emerge in coming days. The state departments of every country in the world is actively involved in helping the citizen's of Libya any way they can. I am certain of that fact. We don't know anything about what is going on behind the scenes we are witnessing.






Group Hug Group Hug Group Hug

Trudat,
To me your post is very truthful and touching. I wish I had the ability to project my feelings and thoughts so well,but I don't.
I can only try to explain my feelings and views,and hopefully others can expound from there.
thanks for your input. Cab

Today the UN (useless nations) passed a round of absoutely meaningless sanctions that only harm the Gaddafi regime financially and logistically. The use of force to remove the regime and to prevent it from further slaughtering the innocment unarmed protesters that only want freedom and the right to govern themselves was removed in the last moment most likely at the behest of the usual suspects China, Russia, or even the United States whose commander in chief is more interested in being "cool" than doing what is right even if that decision in the short term is not a popular one.

Now unless this is just a ploy and NATO is actually going to act against the Gaddafi regime then this is a loss not a win for the people of Libya, they can expect marginal support from countries that support their cause with only some food or some medicince or maybe even money but for the most part it will be emotional support.

To the people of Libya I can only apologize to you as you and your loved ones suffer and die and you wonder why the world hasn't come to your aid....not all of us think that your lives mean nothing and aren't worth sending brave men and women who volunteer to fight and protect our freedoms to fight and protect your freedoms as well. Freedom is a universal right to all mankind and just because it doesn't personally effect us at home when someone on the other side of the globe is being persecuted doesn't make it less wrong. As an american I am so ashamed at the apathy of my people who should've woken up after a terrible september morning but afraid to say we have once again fallen asleep.

I hope and pray and wish for your freedom and victory against your cruel dictator and his henchmen.

Very interesting !!

Libyan chaos stirs global panic over oil supplies

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110227/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_libya_oil_chaos